I know the joke “It is always 50 years away”. I just was wondering if the body of work since 90s which is what the popular level of scientific knowledge is at, including mine – did that notion change? Is fusion technically “all good in paper” and it is an issue of reaching right material technology to harness it, or is it a more complicated complication?
P.S. I know Fusion is real, because stars. I am asking if it is possible on paper in the form factor of a generator.
In: Engineering
There are reasons to be optimistic about fusion power. Here is the current timeline:
* 1952: Fusion power was achieved, though at a net negative energy output (useless as a power source). We have never achieved fusion with positive output as of today.
* 1988: [ITER](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ITER) project initiated = the first fusion plant with a planned net *positive* energy output.
* 2007: ITER construction commences in France.
* 2025: Assembly of ITER is planned to end and plasma may be achieved.
* 2035: Fusion with net positive energy output.
However, ITER will not be hooked up to any grid, and will not be used to generate electricity. That will be reserved for the next project called [DEMO](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/DEMOnstration_Power_Plant) (assuming ITER is successful). DEMO has been delayed since ITER has been delayed, but this is the current plan:
* 2040s: DEMO construction commences.
* 2050s: DEMO operations may commence.
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So with the current progression, fusion is 15 years away.
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